The Kashmir snowfall 13–15 January IMD forecast has brought a clear message for now: IMD’s Meteorological Centre Srinagar has not issued any heavy snowfall warning for the Kashmir plains between 13 and 15 January 2026. Instead, the official outlook points to a dry, freezing Chillai Kalan, with only weak western disturbances and light precipitation chances confined mainly to higher reaches.
For residents, farmers and tourists hoping for a “white winter”, the wait continues.
IMD forecast for Kashmir between 13 and 15 January
The latest forecast from the Meteorological Centre Srinagar (MeT Srinagar), based on IMD data, clearly indicates generally cold and dry weather across Jammu & Kashmir up to 22 January, with no major weather disturbance expected in this period.
According to these bulletins and media summaries based on them:
- 13–15 January:
- Mostly dry weather with partly cloudy skies over the Kashmir Valley.
- No heavy snowfall warning has been issued for the plains.
- Night temperatures remain well below freezing in many places.
Local reports quoting MeT officials add that only weak western disturbances are expected, and these are not strong enough to trigger widespread or intense snowfall over the plains of Kashmir during 13–15 January.
At the same time, the broader IMD outlook flags a continued cold wave with dense to very dense fog across parts of North India, but the main “disruptive” alerts are focused on fog and cold wave, not on any fresh heavy snowstorm hitting the Kashmir plains in this 13–15 January window.
Breakdown of weather pattern till 22 January
Multiple forecasts and local bulletins based on MeT Srinagar guidance broadly agree on the pattern for mid-January:
- Till 15 January:
- Largely dry and stable weather across Jammu & Kashmir, with partly cloudy skies.
- A weak disturbance may bring isolated light rain or snowfall over higher elevations around 12–13 January, but plains stay mostly dry.
- 16–17 January:
- Generally cloudy conditions with light rain/snow at isolated places in the Kashmir division, mainly higher reaches like Gulmarg and Sonamarg.
- 18–19 January:
- Partly to generally cloudy weather, with no strong system seen.
- 20 January:
- Generally cloudy skies with light snowfall at isolated higher reaches of the Kashmir region.
- 21–22 January:
- Back to partly cloudy and mostly dry conditions.
In short, the official message remains that no “significant weather activity” is expected over Jammu & Kashmir till at least 22 January, even though a few weak disturbances may brush the higher reaches.
Impact on travel, tourism and daily life
Cold wave, not “white winter”
While snow lovers are disappointed, the cold itself is very real. Recent readings show sub-zero night temperatures across the Valley, with tourist hotspots like Gulmarg and Pahalgam frequently recording lows between about –7°C and –10°C on the coldest nights, and Srinagar often close to –5°C or lower.
The prolonged dry spell has intensified the cold:
- Clear skies at night allow heat to escape quickly, leading to sharper temperature drops.
- Water taps and supply lines freeze more often, especially in poorly insulated homes.
Road conditions & black ice
Even without fresh snowfall during 13–15 January, black ice and early-morning frost remain a concern on shaded stretches of roads and bridges, particularly in higher reaches and along the Jammu–Srinagar National Highway.
Authorities and traffic police in hill states routinely advise motorists to:
- Drive at very low speeds on suspected icy patches.
- Maintain extra braking distance.
- Use anti-skid chains on steep, snow-prone or frost-prone stretches when conditions demand it.
While there is no specific, fresh IMD travel warning for Kashmir highways for 13–15 January, these standard winter precautions remain prudent.
Jammu plains: dense fog alert
As the Valley shivers in dry cold, the Jammu plains are battling dense to very dense fog, similar to the wider North Indian belt.
IMD has already warned of:
- Moderate to dense fog over the Jammu division, especially during late night and early morning hours.
- Possible visibility drops below safe driving limits on key corridors.
Passengers travelling by road, rail or air through Jammu, Punjab, Haryana and adjoining states should factor in delays due to fog-related disruptions, even though no heavy snowfall is on the radar for the Kashmir plains in mid-January.
Snow chances in higher reaches and later this month
Higher reaches: light spells only
Though the plains look set to remain brown and dry for now, upper reaches of Kashmir have already seen light to moderate snowfall earlier this month, and may pick up fresh light spells around 12–13 and again around 16–20 January under weak western disturbances.
This includes areas such as:
- Gulmarg (Apharwat belt)
- Sonamarg and upper Sindh valley
- Selected high passes and ridges across north and south Kashmir
However, MeT Srinagar and independent forecasters both stress that no strong, organised system is currently seen that could dump heavy snowfall across the plains before the third week of January.
A “winter without snow”? 40% deficit triggers alarm
The bigger story behind this forecast is the seasonal precipitation deficit.
- Official MeT data quoted by Rising Kashmir shows around 40% deficit in rainfall and snowfall so far this winter across Kashmir.
- Another detailed analysis by Kashmir InFocus warns that this deficit threatens water availability, agriculture, tourism and hydropower in the months ahead.
Experts say the continued dry Chillai Kalan is part of a wider pattern of below-normal winter precipitation over the western Himalayas, which IMD has also highlighted in its seasonal outlook for Himalayan states including Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh.
If strong snow-bearing systems do not arrive later this month or in early February, Kashmir could be staring at serious downstream impacts on water security, agriculture and hydropower through 2026.
Key Highlights / Summary Box
• No heavy snowfall warning: IMD’s Meteorological Centre Srinagar has not issued any heavy snowfall warning for Kashmir plains between 13–15 January 2026; weather is expected to remain cold and mostly dry.
• Weak systems, light snow in hills: Only weak western disturbances are expected, capable of producing isolated light rain/snow over higher reaches around 12–13 and 16–20 January, but no major snowstorm for the Valley floor.
• 40% winter precipitation deficit: Chillai Kalan 2026 remains unusually dry, with around 40% deficit in rainfall and snowfall, raising red flags for water, agriculture, tourism and hydropower later this year.
Conclusion / Verdict
For now, the “Kashmir snowfall 13–15 January IMD forecast” offers more cold than snow. The Valley is likely to stay dry and freezing, with only patchy light snowfall chances over higher reaches and no heavy snowfall warning for the plains in this window.
At the same time, the 40% precipitation deficit and the prospect of an almost snowless Chillai Kalan are no longer just a tourism worry – they are a climate and water security story that will continue to unfold over the coming months.
Stay tuned to KittoNews for daily IMD updates, traffic advisories and any change in the western disturbance pattern that could finally bring a proper snow spell to the Valley.
FAQs
A1: No. As per the latest forecast from Meteorological Centre Srinagar, no heavy snowfall warning has been issued for the Kashmir plains between 13–15 January 2026. The weather is expected to remain generally cold and dry, with only weak disturbances affecting higher reaches.
A2: Light snowfall cannot be ruled out over some higher reaches, especially around 12–13 January and again between 16–20 January, due to weak western disturbances. However, widespread or heavy snowfall over the plains is not forecast for 13–15 January at this stage.
A3: MeT data and expert analyses show around 40% deficit in winter rainfall and snowfall so far, with most of Chillai Kalan passing under clear skies and cold, snowless conditions in the plains. This has led media and meteorologists to describe the season as a “winter without snow” and a “dry Chillai Kalan”, with worrying implications for water, farming, tourism and hydropower.
A4: IMD has issued alerts for cold wave and dense to very dense fog over large parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and the Jammu division, while also warning of heavy to very heavy rain over parts of Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern states around 11–12 January. So, even though Kashmir plains are dry, winter remains severe across much of India.
