Srinagar: Just days after the season’s first major snowfall paralyzed the Valley, Jammu & Kashmir is bracing for another spell. The Meteorological Department (MeT) and independent forecasters have confirmed that a fresh Western Disturbance (WD) will affect the region starting this evening (Monday, Jan 26), bringing a mix of rain and snow that could disrupt the newly restored traffic flow.
The Timeline: Monday Night to Tuesday Evening
- Start: Precipitation is expected to begin late Monday evening/night.
- Peak: The system will remain active through Tuesday (Jan 27), tapering off by the evening.
- Intensity: While officials state this system is “not as strong” as the previous one, it is active enough to dump moderate to heavy snow in higher elevations.
District-Wise Probability
Forecaster Faizan Arif provided a detailed breakdown of where the snow is most likely to stick:
- High Accumulation Risk (60-70%): Shopian, Kulgam, and areas close to the Pir Panjal range. These zones are likely to see “dry snow” which accumulates faster.
- Moderate Risk: Chenab Valley, Poonch, and the critical Qazigund-Banihal stretch (Gateway to the Highway).
- Low Risk (Plains): North and Central Kashmir plains (including Srinagar) have a 30-40% chance of snow. Most plains will likely see cold rain unless night temperatures drop significantly below 3°C.
The “Warm” Side Effect
Interestingly, this cloudy system will bring relief from the bone-chilling cold.
- Night Temps: Minimum temperatures are expected to rise significantly tonight. The cloud cover acts as a blanket, trapping heat and breaking the severe cold wave that saw Gulmarg freeze at -10.2°C yesterday.
Key Highlights: Travel Advisory
- NH-44 Status: The highway opened for traffic on Sunday, but fresh snow at the Navyug Tunnel and Banihal tonight could trigger new slippery conditions by Tuesday morning.
- Mughal Road: Remains closed.
- Advice: Commuters are urged to complete their journey before sunset today (Monday) to avoid getting stuck in the overnight spell.
FAQ Section
A: It is a 50-50 chance. Srinagar is more likely to see rain or sleet, but if the temperature drops, a thin layer of snow is possible by morning.
A: No. This is a short burst. Weather is expected to improve from Jan 28 onwards.
